Forums / Political & Legal / IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, Number 2........................

3 years 33 weeks ago, 7:16 AM

LLE

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My friends: Here it is a week after "the raid". Clintlebo and I had an interesting discussion here mainly, about my thesis that OBL is alive and kicking, rather than shot through the eye with half his skull blown off, and his brain hanging out.

As I predicted to some of my family members who were interested, and as I indicated here. it ain't over till it's over.

So what do we have now??---
An Administration that can't seem to get their story straight about just what did happen on the raid.
A BHO decision to NOT release "the pictures", and--
the beginnings of some expert discussions and questioning of the so-called DNA identification test.

If my thesis is valid, and OBL is still alive, THAT could explain why the pictures will not be released. It would be very difficult , even with an OBL standin, to simulate an unimpeachable set of photographs. And to release the details of the DNA test would be to expose themselves to [if you will pardon thelanguage] being shot full of holes. Prediction--the details of the DNA test will likewise not be released.

Most people who argue against my outside the box thinking, dismiss it because such a thing could never be pulled off without someone leaking the story. Really?? Remember the Doolittle raid on Tokyo ?; Remember the Manhattan Project ?; Remember the Israeli raid on Entebbe?

Consider this: The POTUS meets with his Joint Chiefs and the Director, CIA. The Plan is hatched on the basis of criticality to the possible shortening of the war on worldwide jihad. It becomes cosmic top secret, galaxy. The very small SEAL team is selected down to the last helicopter mechanic, the last cook and baker. The training location "does not even exist" on any government inventory. When deemed ready, the POTUS meets face to face with the team and tells them, if a leak occurs, this group, from myself down through the joint chiefs, the CIA director, and your small team will be responsible. Once OBL is taken, only myself and three other people will know WHERE he will be taken. An after action report will become public, and my orders to you are to remain silent, despite what you hear or see. That which you are about to accomplish is critical to this war effort, and may in the future, be discussed as an effort which helped save the world from the Islamic worldwide jihad.
The NSC, does not even know, until the real-time viewing in the security room. Even they, do not know that OBL was taken, rather than killed.

Yes--something like that could have been accomplished. If so, you can bet that OBL is being rung out by any manner of means, so that critical intel will ultimately make BHO very powerful in "directing" the war on international jihad. In the process, his double life ambition to become the chief player in the Islamo-extremist world will also be served, by his surreptitious redirection of that movement in a way that counteracts any actions the US and its allies may
take.
Scarey scenario--but certainly possible, IMHO. 'nuff said??

Now they are calling me a "deather". I'd rather be called a "Lifer".

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 10:35 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Interesting hypothesis

If he is alive at all, he would have to be a captive, because there is no way in hell that this administration would announce he was dead unless they were sure he won't be making a video disproving them.
But you invoked Occum's Razor before so, as this hypothesis makes greater assumptions, you must admit that you should tend toward the hypothesis that he was, in fact, killed. Deader than shit, to utilize a layman's vernacular.
The biggest assumption made by most conspiracy theories in which, in my opinion, make them less plausible, is the hyper-competence of government.
While it is comforting to some to think that the government is capable to know, do, and hide so many things to the point of near omnipotence, the reality that I think we have all seen is that the government couldn't make money selling women and booze (true story, actually).

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
3 years 32 weeks ago, 8:29 PM

LLE

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It was his premise that the simplest explanation is that OBL IS dead. However, it is my premise that we are in a war that is unlike past wars, against stateless entities, and we are facing asymetrical threats, from many directions. In many ways this war is more difficult to cope with, and both Administrations have admitted the absolute criticalness of every shred of intelligence. The simplest and most parsimonious explanation [Occam's Razor] therefore is, it would be insane to do away with a person who potentially is the best source of intelligence obtainable, notwithstanding the materials found at the Abbottabad complex.

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 12:45 PM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Occam's Razor

Oh, forgive me for the misunderstanding then. Regarding your statement:

Quote:
it is my premise that we are in a war that is unlike past wars, against stateless entities, and we are facing asymetrical threats, from many directions. In many ways this war is more difficult to cope with, and both Administrations have admitted the absolute criticalness of every shred of intelligence.

Yes, yes, and yes. I agree with this wholeheartedly.

Quote:
The simplest and most parsimonious explanation [Occam's Razor] therefore is,

Ah, lex parsimoniae, eh?

Quote:
it would be insane to do away with a person who potentially is the best source of intelligence obtainable, notwithstanding the materials found at the Abbottabad complex.

Not necessarily. If his his existence is a detriment that outweighs the potential benefit of any intelligence. The material intelligence was the higher value than bin Laden himself as the information he contains must be extracted and can't necessarily be trusted whereas the material intel requires little or no extraction and is more reputable than what OBL would spew. And even if there was some net value to keeping OBL alive, it would be very short term. Once we obtained what we could, his possession would be useless or, worse, a detriment.
It would be the greater assumption to say the government isn't telling the truth about his death and is hiding the truth, whether to our greater good or not.

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
3 years 32 weeks ago, 8:40 PM

Vaquero

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Let's just say

That our intell is above and beyond what "we as citizens" can imagine.
You really don't want to know the full scope of what GWB authorized.

The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:30 PM

Anonymous

Vaq

I agree with you like always. John, But I shot every and cut and choked and gutted and pulled eyes out and stomped brains out, and you know the rest, like in every other war when hand to hand or a yard to yard or 100 yards to 100 yards, claymores, tripflares, mines, bouncing bettys,old ww2's wooden stakes with shit smeared holes in ground, spiders snakes rats, orangatangs, springbucks, dolphins, round eyes, slant eyes, it is war at the time, and in the others sidepockets are pictures of his or her familys as well. Now it is different. So I am not going to say any more and just watch and listen, like the old gator that waits for the piece of meat that flys his way when the young fight over the rest. JLC

3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:07 AM

clintlebo

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occams razor

When I mentioned Occams Razor I should have been more precise in my meaning as society has warped the meaning to be: "the simplest explanation is the logical one".
LLE and I have differing views on the information provided to us by the same source. We started to debate the truth, justification, and belief of the information presented. I interpreted LLE's post as questioning the source of the information and the differing explanation of the information presented. I in turn questioned the magnitude of secrecy it would take to carry out his hypothesis. The problem of deciding between competing explanations for empirical facts cannot be solved by formal tools. Simplicity principles can be useful heuristics in creating hypotheses, but they do not make a contribution to the selection of theories. A theory that is compatible with one person’s world view will be considered simple, clear, logical, and evident, whereas what is contrary to that world view will quickly be rejected as an overly complex explanation with senseless additional hypotheses. Occam’s razor, in this way, becomes a “mirror of prejudice."
I began to realize He and I were beginning to slide into a circular argument, so I gave him the last word. I am able to understand his view and accept it for what it is, but I do not subscribe to it. "OBL is dead" is much simpler, clearer, more logical, and more evident to me than "OBL being alive".

clint

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." (Calvin & Hobbes)
3 years 32 weeks ago, 1:08 PM

Saint J.M. Browning

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clintlebo

Right. I get that. I know that the true meaning of lex parsimoniae (Occam's razor) and that it essentially states that all other things being equal, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be given the greatest weight in credibility.
I also understand the circular argument which is the problem with this particular enigma. None of us are going to know all the details that would allow us to make a definitive statement of his condition. It is the same reason that the decision to show his death photos is pointless. The people that don't believe he is dead would not be convinced of their authenticity anyway. There will always be the suspicion regardless of what proof was presented.
That's why Occam's razor is a valid tool in my opinion. Because the lack of empirical evidence available to us. We can only go by what we have available and will never have any proof, therefore we must surmise which is the most plausible. In this case, to refute the claim of the government and say that he is surely still alive is, in my opinion, the greater assumption.
BTW, LLE, don't misunderstand me. I like you. I disagree with your theory, but I like you. You are (as is Clint) obviously intelligent and articulate and it is rare for me to get a chance to have such conversations, let alone a good lively debate.

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
3 years 32 weeks ago, 1:03 PM

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clintlebo

thats the stand i take too.i dont belive he is alive,and there is no hard evidence to support the theory in my opinion.it makes much more sense to belive he is dead,even without evidence to support it.many assasinations have taken place without any evidence at all.if bin ladin was alive wouldnt we expect to see him on the news again reminding the islamic world that the infidel americans are lying again as usual?why are we seeing taliban bombers avenging his death?i belive in the posibility he is alive,just as i belive in the possibility of space aliens,i just dont have enough proof to push me towards a stance in that direction.not attacking you LLE,i respect your opinion,just stating mine.

CRY HAVOC and let slip the dogs of war!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:21 PM

LLE

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I think I remember saying, somewhat earlier, that I was not trying to change anyone's mind, and that is still the case. It is the discussion, itself, that is very valuable. To digress somewhat--I find it difficult these days, to have such a discussion--or even argument [in the academic sense] without anger and animus resulting, over almost anything, no matter how trivial. For me, except in a few "loaded" situations, such disagreement has never been equated with dislike. I admire you and Clint, and anyone else who might wish to participate, but alas, it now is last week's news.

Thanks, again.

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:25 PM

Ishootdaily

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eh, its only words...

Hell we used to sit around and shoot the breeze, pick on each others thoughts, roll in the dirt, get up brush off and pop the top on another.

If it makes you think then it is good....

No sir, he fell into that bullet... Never argue with a stupid person. They'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:57 AM

Ishootdaily

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LLE

ask your contact how such outrageously beautiful young women can turn into those Yack's you see on the History channel and Military History channel?

I mean damn....

No sir, he fell into that bullet... Never argue with a stupid person. They'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:24 PM

clintlebo

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LLE

We could try to debate the flood waters...

I say it is a government conspiracy started from the massive array in Alaska controlling the weather to increase the people reliance on government to rebuild after the waters have receded.

clint

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." (Calvin & Hobbes)
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:26 PM

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Real Rednecks don't swim or float!

No sir, he fell into that bullet... Never argue with a stupid person. They'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 10:44 PM

LLE

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could you define "massive array in Alaska". I spent a lot of time there, and never observed anything that those words might convey, unless you are talking about the huge antenna arrays of the BMEWS radar.

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:15 AM

clintlebo

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HAARP

Sorry LLE I got my conspiracies mixed up, not the large array in NEW MEXICO, but HAARP in ALASKA. I feel so elementary right now. What a rookie mistake. I guess Michael Moore is going to fire me from his production crew. Hello unemployment line and government cheese!!!

clint

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 8:41 AM

LLE

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It is relatively conventional radar,but very powerful. If HAARP is in Alaska, I will take your word for it. We amateur radio guys know about HAARP, just from the standpoint of potential interference to our HF frequencies [ionosphere dependent], and the folklore surrounding something advertised as the "Russian Woodpecker", which bedeviled us for a long time. Many thought it was a cover story for HAARP ionospheric experiments.

The stories about tampering with the ionosphere are scary. Is that the conspiracy you are speaking of vis-a-vis weather effects??

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 9:41 AM

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weather effects

roger on the ionosphere consiparcy LLE, but I was trying to be facetious in my post. Not trying to start anything...

HAARP is located in Garkona (SP) Alaska.

clint

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." (Calvin & Hobbes)
3 years 32 weeks ago, 5:26 AM

LLE

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the work being performed at Gakona is totally for military advantage purposes. It is phantasmagoric, compared to my OBL alive theory. But the Government's info piece is a bland recitation of the HAARP research objectives. Their story is that the project is not classified, although some objectives include improved military and civilian communications. Their capability consists of 180 antennas, over 35 acres, and a total of 3600 KW RF output. If I had a station like that, I would change freq, and communicate to our friends in the gallaxy!!

If you want "facetious", you ought to read some of the conspiritorial stuff. LMAO

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:07 AM

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Seems like some such wet around on the net, something to do with the papers from Tesla's research over the years he never let anyone see which the government spirited away when he died.

No sir, he fell into that bullet... Never argue with a stupid person. They'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:47 AM

LLE

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the possible transmission of electric power without the use of wire/cables. That generally meant through the air. He apparently discovered some useful principles, but I certainly do not pretend to understand them. There are all sorts of stories about heating the ionosphere and obtaining frequency conversion effects useful for ELF communication with submarines. Never heard about intensifying hurricanes, except for putting U of Miami football players on steroids.

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 8:11 AM

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My step brother did the stats at all the games for all of the Miami teams, Pro and College. The Cain's being on roids isn't that far fetched.

No sir, he fell into that bullet... Never argue with a stupid person. They'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!!
3 years 32 weeks ago, 8:20 AM

clintlebo

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LLE!!

"Never heard about intensifying hurricanes, except for putting U of Miami football players on steroids."

Now that is the comedy. This is a good morning to be on Gunslot, you and ISD are cracking me up.

clint

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." (Calvin & Hobbes)
3 years 32 weeks ago, 9:02 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Tesla

supposedly caused the Tunguska event while experimenting with this idea.

BTW, lol @ the U of Miami comment. Oh sorry, I meant "THE U". lol

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:10 AM

LLE

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even way back then. But I happen to know, from a source that cannot be divulged, the Tanguska event was actually a UFO that was downed inadvertently, by a Tesla underground transmission test, that leaked into the atmosphere. Sure must have been a nasty surprise for those spacemen. That's how he got the idea for thru-the-air transmissions, as well as death rays!!--a hellofa serendipitous event!!

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 32 weeks ago, 3:19 PM

Saint J.M. Browning

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The real secret

of the Tunguska event is that he purposely caused it to exterminate the Almasty (Russia's bigfoot). It is a little known fact that what drove Tesla's brilliant career was a desire for revenge. It would seem that around 1878, Tesla quit school, broke off relations with his family, and had a nervous breakdown. The reason for this (which has been well hidden) was that, during a trip to the Caucasus region of Russia, he was raped by an Almas.
From that day, his entire life was devoted to flattening all of Central Asia to eradicate all the Almasty.
The evidence of his success can be found in the reported Almas sightings before and after the event in 1908. Before 1908, sightings were common. Central Asians were so used to them, they used them for labor. After 1908, only kooks around high power lines ever report seeing them. ;)

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 4:53 PM

LLE

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were exterminated, however. Actually the survivors migrated to far north east Russia, and actually swam across to the closest point on the west central Alaskan coast. Apparently, they did not wish to remain in a similar climate, and migrated south through what is now the Yukon and BC territories, then down into the NW USA. Many of the current sightings are thought to be mostly females, who wish to mate with human males, because of an ED epidemic among their males, who seem to age prematurely. There also is a remanent in Mongolia/China, but the males do not seem to be afflicted with ED. It is believed that this is related to a diet heavy in wild rice. ;-))

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
3 years 31 weeks ago, 9:05 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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lol

Good stuff.

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 9:14 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Clint

I just noticed your friend request in my email. I went to my profile and nothing was there. So I sent you one.

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
3 years 32 weeks ago, 10:27 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Flood waters

That's ridiculous. It is obviously bovine flatulence that gets caught in prevailing jet streams and blown to the arctic causing polar bears to cry and fill Hudson bay with their tears which then causes the floods. That's what Al Gore said. And he is an authority. Hell, he invented the interwebs!
We should tax cattle ranchers and then the floods will go away and polar bears can stop crying and resume drinking Coca-Cola(r). ;)

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:28 PM

clintlebo

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real rednecks

they don't swim or float, they just lift their trucks higher and put on bigger tires.

clint

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:30 PM

Vaquero

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Yep

I'm buying stock in reynolds.
(aluminium foil that is)

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 10:52 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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Reynolds

Happy Couple
I suppose everybody knows at least one of these at one time or another in their lives.

It keeps you safe.

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:31 PM

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Vaq!

that last post made me think of the Beverly Hillbilly's intro song...

clint

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:35 PM

Vaquero

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clint

How's the soggy North East today?

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:18 AM

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soggy northeast

Vaq, let me pull up the weather for that region and get you a report.

According to Weather.com there is some flooding predicted out there. but over all not bad. I mean it is not as bad as the Mississippi corridor.

clint

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." (Calvin & Hobbes)
3 years 32 weeks ago, 6:39 PM

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bin laden's son

is missing from the compound (according to the "wives")
Whew! the conspiracy crowd is having a field day down here.
According to local lore, the SEALs took him for a positive DNA ID, or, the son was killed and bin laden wasn't even there.
Chew on that.

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3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:15 PM

Anonymous

Vaq

Now I have to watch the show on discovery on at 10:pm sunday night. they are going to explain everything second by second on up the ladder of orders, according to FBI Buds. Also he was removed from Ten most wanted list off FBI as deceased right from the top, and probably the new sheriff to be appointed soon here. JOHN

3 years 32 weeks ago, 7:39 PM

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JLC

How are ya bud? I lost my connection and am on the blackberry now.

The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth!

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