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4 years 21 weeks ago, 12:23 PM

Pkato

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Hurricanes

Now IPCC hurricane data is questioned
Alert Print Open science: Got Excel? Debunk this

By Andrew Orlowski • Get more from this author

Posted in Environment, 15th February 2010 11:00 GMT

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More trouble looms for the IPCC. The body may need to revise statements made in its Fourth Assessment Report on hurricanes and global warming. A statistical analysis of the raw data shows that the claims that global hurricane activity has increased cannot be supported.

Les Hatton once fixed weather models at the Met Office. Having studied Maths at Cambridge, he completed his PhD as meteorologist: his PhD was the study of tornadoes and waterspouts. He's a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, currently teaches at the University of Kingston, and is well known in the software engineering community - his studies include critical systems analysis.

Hatton has released what he describes as an 'A-level' statistical analysis, which tests six IPCC statements against raw data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Administration. He's published all the raw data and invites criticism, but warns he is neither "a warmist nor a denialist", but a scientist.

Hatton performed a z-test statistical analysis of the period 1999-2009 against 1946-2009 to test the six conclusions. He also ran the data ending with what the IPCC had available in 2007. He found that North Atlantic hurricane activity increased significantly, but the increase was counterbalanced by diminished activity in the East Pacific, where hurricane-strength storms are 50 per cent more prevalent. The West Pacific showed no significant change. Overall, the declines balance the increases.

"When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost exactly balances." This isn't indicative of an increase in atmospheric energy manifesting itself in storms.

Even the North Atlantic increase should be treated with caution, Hatton concludes, since the period contains one anomalous year of unusually high hurricane activity - 2005 - the year Al Gore used the Katrina tragedy to advance the case for the manmade global warming theory.

The IPCC does indeed conclude that "there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones." If only the IPCC had stopped there. Yet it goes on to make more claims, and draw conclusions that the data doesn't support.

Claims and data
Thre IPCC's WG1 paper states: "There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater." Hatton points out the data quality is similar in each area.

The IPCC continues: "It is more likely than not (> 50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity." But, as Hatton points out, that conclusion comes from computer climate models, not from the observational data, which show no increase.

"The IPCC goes on to make statements that would never pass peer review," Hatton told us. A more scientifically useful conclusion would have been to ask why there was a disparity. "This differential behaviour to me is very interesting. If it's due to increased warming in one place, and decreased warming in the other - then that's interesting to me."

Hatton has thirty years of experience of getting scientific papers published, but describes this one, available on his personal website, as "unpublishable".

"It's an open invitation to tell me I'm wrong," he says. He was prompted to look more closely by the Climategate emails, and by his years of experience with computer modelling. All code and data on which policy conclusions are made should be open and freely downloadable, he says - preferably with open tools.

You can download both the paper and the code and tools from here.®

Bootnote
The IPCC's AR4 chapter lead was Kevin Trenberth, who features prominently in the Climategate emails. In 2005, the National Hurricane Center's chief scientist Chris Landsea resigned his post in protest at the treatment of the subject by Trenberth.

"I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth’s actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4."

Critics point out that an increase in low-intensity storms being recorded is due to better instrumentation. Most are at sea, and thanks to radar and satellites, more are now observed.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/15/hatton_on_hurricanes/

Patrolman Kato
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4 years 21 weeks ago, 1:28 PM

Pkato

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Here's more...

it's so much fun to watch this whole argument collapse...by the way, has anyone heard from Al Gore lately? Is he still alive?

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/warming_meltdown_iD1...

Patrolman Kato
Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself.
They are the American people's liberty teeth and keystone
under independence. -- George Washington
4 years 21 weeks ago, 1:34 PM

Nitris

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Pkato why is the southern states for the last 3 or so years been having so much rain? I have never seen this much rain in 39 years as I have here of late.

Ron Paul 2012 III
4 years 21 weeks ago, 4:55 PM

Pkato

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Hey

Hey
First off...saying that you have gotten a lot of rain, more than usual is not very scientific...but let's asume you are right. Well, there are numerous reason why. First, this year is an el Nino year...which means that the west coast gets rain and mudslides. It also means that the mean location of the polar front jet is further south than normal. Which also explains some of the storm activity in Arizona, NM. See, storms ALWAYS track along the PFJ (polar front jet). Usually, storms (Lows) develop in the Alaskan Gulf region or in Canada (way up north-different locations), but they need homogenous environments. Anyway, the PFJ usually pushes south in the winter, along the Rocky Mountains and depending how cold the air is...it will push the storms down along the east range into Kansas and Oklahoma. Well, in El Nino years, the PFJ and jet stream are reoriented and flow more west- east along the southern states and the jet stream makes a left turn along the eastern seaboard. So storms, move further south or directly across the south from California...it's more complicated than this...but I think you can see what I mean. This definitely accounts for the extra rainfall...remember just a few years ago when Georgia had bad droughts??? That's since turned around...it's cyclical..always has been and always will be. WE really know only a little bit about all of this...because if we knew more, our forecasts would be perfect? Anytime we use models for weather or climate, they are going to be off at times...sometimes by a lot. Anyway...don't forget, human beings tend to remember big events, but also these memories fade with time. Have you ever said something like...wow, I remember when I was a kid, it snowed so much and we got so much snow...well, maybe that is true, but maybe you just don't remember it correctly. As a kid 6-8 inches seems like a lot of snow when you are 3 foot tall...but it's less significant as an adult. As for ebear's point about earthquakes. The New Madrid fault runs basically along the Mississippi River, near New Madrid, MO. This fault is bigger and potentially more dangerous than the San Andreas fault in Calfornia. My first two earthquakes experienced were at Chanute, Air Base, Rantoul Illinois and Blytheville, Arkansas in 1987 and 1989. In 1990, all the national media gathered around New Madrid to see the biggest earthquakes of all time--as predicted by some scientist. They sold t-shirts, hats, had all kinds of events..etc. But, guess what happened? Nothing. Science is not the end all to be all. Remember, doctors once used leeches to perform blood letting, in hopes of curing people.!!!!

Patrolman Kato
Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself.
They are the American people's liberty teeth and keystone
under independence. -- George Washington
4 years 21 weeks ago, 1:34 PM

Pkato

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and another opinion:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870363040457505378146577400...

Patrolman Kato
Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself.
They are the American people's liberty teeth and keystone
under independence. -- George Washington
4 years 21 weeks ago, 1:37 PM

Ebear

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shit

we had an earthquake here in Elgin last week. 3.9 on the Richter scale.....very rare around here.

...check... G-AZ
4 years 21 weeks ago, 1:40 PM

Nitris

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But this is nothing but global warming......................Thats what Al whore said.

Ron Paul 2012 III

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