Forums / Political & Legal / SCENARIO..............

2 years 39 weeks ago, 9:07 AM

LLE

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SCENARIO..............

Sundown, Tuesday, 25 September, 2012--The Day of Atonement for Jews: Several mid-east US operated ballistic missile detection radars sound alarms that their impact predictors show high confidence impacts for Tel Aviv and several Israeli military, naval and air force installation areas. Back-trajectory calculations point clearly to launch sites in Iran and Syria. All anti-missile-missile sites are immediately activated, as are all Israeli retaliatory systems, including nuclear equiped strike aircraft, and patrol submarines. Israel is now in their highest def-con level, and targetting includes every known major military installation in Iran and Syria, as well as the largest population centers.

The Patriot and other anti-missile missiles miss their intended incoming warheads, and Tel Aviv disappears under a barage of relatively low yield warheads. The scrambled Israeli counterstrike forces have all been informed, as they approach their designated targets, while the second strike Israeli forces are launched toward other potential "enemy attackers". State-of-the-art electronic countermeasures assure that the Israeli airborne counterstrikes will be at least 80% effective, and thus, two "enemy" countries will effectively cease to exist.

What is the immediate effect on the rest of the world?
More specfically, what is the immediate effect on the USA?
Did we learn ANYTHING, even though it was too late?
What do you believe the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans and their friends might be doing, while we are preoccupied with these events?

THIS is my challenge to any of you who are interested:
YOU write the ending for this scenario.

What's that?? You think it could never happen?? Well, IMO, we are close to it, right now.

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
2 years 39 weeks ago, 10:09 AM

jay sedler

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lle scenario response.

hard to say what russia would be up to,but i believe china and n korea would be preparing to deploy either a secret attack on the us and or israel with bios chems and or dirty bombs ,to test the waters so to speak,and logically we would assume the attack came from the government or terrorist cells of one of those mid eastern countries,this would benefit them in many ways (1) to see how fast we could handle damage control (2) to see what secret weapons vehicles and technology we would certainly unveil (3) whatever damage these"tests" did is damage already done before any official attack started,I'm thinking of the old knife fighting saying "any cut is a good cut" (4) to demoralize the attacked country or countries citizens (5) any country hit with a non typical weapon such as nukes bios chems or other similar type weapon would basically be forced to either
(A)bring their armed forces in to police their own land and citizens fearing it was coordinated domestically,leaving room for easy expansion into neighboring european or asian/mid east countries that are not very well armed themselves.
(B)scramble their armed forces,possibly invade the wrong country instigating war between two countries who otherwise had no real reason to fight each other,this would be beneficial to further grind down our military,morale,alliances,and monetary funds,not to mention fuel materials food and water!furthermore the full or near full deployment of a nations armed forces leaves the homeland weak to defend against further attacks of any scale,and make it easier to "divide and conquer"

there are my most prominate thoughts on the subject.what do you think guys?

CRY HAVOC and let slip the dogs of war!
2 years 39 weeks ago, 11:09 AM

Saint J.M. Browning

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My $.02

I think all the countries mentioned, with the possible exception of N. Korea, will start to argue over who has drilling rights in the newly formed sheet of glass.

America's response will depend on who is in power at the time. If it is Obungler, he will condemn the Israeli reaction and start apologizing to the Saudis, UAE, etc.

If the government is occupied more more right wing reps, they will condemn Iran and Syria, applaud Israel and warn the rest of the world against retaliation.

If a more middle of the road government is in place, they will create a committee to ascertain the facts, still condemn all parties involved, regardless of the results, start focus groups to decide which action will be most popular, half ass implement it. Israel will come under attack by Jordanians, Palestinians, Egyptians, and other Jihadists and will be summarily kicking their ass. Meanwhile, the EU, Russian, and China will have drilling equipment moved into ground zero.

"I don't think Hank done it this way" - Waylon
2 years 39 weeks ago, 1:13 PM

LLE

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the mixture of humor/acerbic wit with some good stuff.

I had thought about who might "claim" the Iranian waste land, but then I thought that too hasty an occupation might result in generational genetic radiation damage to those who were in a hurry.

Also, I thought about how serious the attack on Israel might leave the country, and how much aid we would be willing to give, including helping to defend them if they were invaded by their perpetual enemies. I wonder if they COULD kick some ass unaided, if they had been badly damaged.

I would like to think that we should have learned, since our [really questionable] intelligence reports indicated that the Iranians were anywhere from a couple of days to several years away from a number of weaponized nukes, perhaps it would have been good to err on the side of extreme caution and enlightened paranoia; and all of the BS re escalating "sanctions" was no more than a modernized version of the lessons from Neville Chamberlain's fairy tale book. Hitler was undoubtedly laughing his ass off hysterically [but quietly] at "peace in our time", and the Iranian psychotics were undoubtedly doing the same thing at escalating sanctions.

Back to the present: If I were the Israeli leadership I would prepare for the absolute worst scenario, if I did not have the will to launch a pre-emptive attack.. All of the great international "agreement" that we cannot allow Iran to build/create/produce deliverable nukes is now nothing but hot air, as are sanctions.
The Israelis are damned if they do AND damned if they don't. Better to have to face excoriation from the rest of the world by launching a pre-nuclear fight, than have nuke warheads descending on their civilization. Come to think of it, that is a fairly good operational definition of "never again".

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]
2 years 39 weeks ago, 11:36 PM

greg az

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LLE wrote .Back-trajectory calculations point clearly to launch sites in Iran and Syria..Thats going to be most of the validation for a strike on either Nation.. If we can't "back trajectory"... I'm afraid this is more likely to happen as well.. a city.. Haifa.. Kansas city. have a low yield.. With out a clear origin, and considering what a nightmare the area around ground zero would be, the origin might never be known.. I've heard low yield deaths in the seven figures.. Thats million's.. "if" there isn't an immediate response, the likelihood of having one drops exponentially every moment following the blast..

Clean up will be another katrina, but this time worse.. My guess is we throw out the arm chair "bomb toss" and deal with what we know we have... six figure deaths.. morgues will cease to exist.. the number one job will be to get bodies underground asap and/or burned. Food and water will be brought in of course, but marshal law will prevail, as it should, to control those homeless, and family less.. A disaster we war game all the time, but betting the reality will be unbelievable..

OK so lets talk about the probability of this.. I'm thinking it's very possible.. Consider that the Iranians took over our best stealth drone (first pics came out then remember).. If they have to capability to do this.. itls taken them 7 times longer than the slowest Nation on earth to develop the bomb.. Good grief.. Course we don't want to acknowledge that the sanctions don't work... uh,,, they dont huh look what happened to N Korea.. They were supposed to be 5 years away from the bomb when that "earthquake" happened over their, we didn't believe it.. So they announced the day and time of the next earthquake.. NO WAY that Iran doesn't have the bomb.. the sanctions only cement their anti American feelings.. Then you have the situation in Afghanistan.. how did that happen guys.. We all know that they go knee jerk if you get one dusty.. but noooooooo... were going to burn them, this is just stupid.. tomorrow (fri) is the big service day, so will see.. i for one don't see how we can ever win..or what a WIN even looks like.. Iraq is falling apart..

Why don't we just cut our losses and go home.. If not let me ask you guys.. Do we go back into Iraq.. curious.. what do you guys think..

a man has to hold his word, hold his beliefs, and hold a good sight picture.
2 years 39 weeks ago, 10:47 AM

LLE

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We have had the technology developing since the late '50s, and by about 1962, we had a fully operating system arrayed against our prime antagonist. This system was/is named the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System [BMEWS]. My company was the prime contractor/system manager for the USAF, and the division I worked for was responsible for the installation, system integration, total system test, and operation/maintenance. The technology has been continually upgraded and improved {radars, computers and software}. The technology has also permitted smaller and more easily deployed editions to cover certain sectors of the world we are interested in. Several of these smaller additions are deployed in the middle east, including in Turkey and Israel.

All of this is to say we can calculate high confidence back trajectories just as well as we can calculate high probability impact predictions. So, from a practical standpoint, if our policy is to "allow" the first strike to be launched at us or an ally, an instantaneous response will be mounted, and at the same time our anti-missile systems would receive the data and deploy instantaneously. Our potential adversaries know that while some of their warheads may get through, they will have the largest arsenal in the world directed at them, and basically, they will disappear, but we will survive.

With regard to Iranian technology, I would not want to over-estimate what they have created on their own. The drone case is now [strongly] believed to be a function of covert transfer of Russian technology, and while they are using almost all of their limited income for hardware, they are also paying for brainpower help from their several international friends. I would not want to UNDERESTIMATE, therefore, how close they are to producing at least a few weaponized nukes to fit onto their ballistic missiles. Our intelligence may not be high quality/confidence at present, but as some of the Republican candidates have said---when someone says they are going to exponge you from the face of the earth, you might want to err on the side of self-preservation, so we can understand why Israel is not inclined to be deterred by "world opinion", or be impressed by sanctions.

With respect to Iraq--we will soon see overt, violent civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiites, and probable attempts by the Kurds to "secede". Thus all of the blood and treasure we expended was for naught. That brings me back to the evidence that Republican presidents can make big mistakes too--Remember Wubya's campaign declaration never to be engaged in State Building??

Too old to fight, Too old to run, guess that's why I carry a gun! "would someone show this asshole the way out of town".[Rabbi Avram Belinski-aka "The Frisco Kid"]

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